The land within the borders of today's Portuguese Republic has been continuously settled since prehistoric times. Gallaeci, Lusitanians, Celtici, Cynetes, Phoenicians, Carthaginians, Romans and many Germanic tribes such as the Suevi, the Buri and the Visigoths, all left its influence on what is today Portuguese territory. In the early 8th century, the Moors conquered the Christian Germanic kingdoms, eventually occupying most of the Iberian Peninsula. Later, in the early 1100s, during the Christian Reconquista, Portugal appeared as a kingdom independent of its neighbour, the Kingdom of León and Galicia. In 1249, Portugal would establish almost its entire modern-day borders.
During the 15th and 16th centuries, with a global empire that included possessions in Africa, Asia, and South America, Portugal was one of the world's major economic, political and military powers. It was then united with Spain during a period called the Iberian Union; however, it went onto re-establish total sovereignty and independence during the Portuguese Restoration War that resulted in the establishment of a new dynasty and a return to the previous separation between the two crowns and empires.
The 1755 Lisbon earthquake, Spanish and French invasions, and the loss of its largest territorial possession abroad, Brazil, resulted in both the disruption of political stability and potential economic growth as well as the reduction of Portugal's international status as a global power during the 19th century. After the overthrow of the monarchy in 1910, a republic was established that was then followed by a dictatorship. With the Portuguese Colonial War and the Carnation Revolution coup d'état in 1974, the ruling dictatorship was deposed in Lisbon and the country handed over its last overseas provinces in Africa; the last overseas territory, Macau, was handed over to China in 1999.
Portugal is a developed country and it has the world's 19th highest quality-of-life, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit. It is the 14th most peaceful and the 13th most globalized country in the world. It is a member of the European Union (joined the then EEC in 1986, leaving the EFTA where it was a founding member in 1960) and the United Nations; as well as a founding member of the Latin Union, the Organization of Ibero-American States, OECD, NATO, Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the European Union's Eurozone, and also a Schengen state. |
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Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
Total wireless subscribers in Portugal to reach 16.4 million in 2013 with Optimus taking market share away from TMN and Telecel Vodafone over the next five years.
Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Portugal’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN, Telecel Vodafone, and Optimus. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth in the Netherlands remains positive
+7.2% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008.
ARPU levels continue to decline in the Netherlands
-3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing slightly
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -0.7% in 4Q.2008.
Strong EBITDA growth for Vodafone and Ben (T-Mobile)
+14.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008.
So what is our forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in the Netherlands to exceed 23 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in the Netherlands will increase from 19.63 million in 2008 to 23.08 million in 2013.
- KPN Mobile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the Netherlands and we forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 9.78 million in 2008 to 12.18 million in 2013.
- Ben (T-Mobile)'s subscribers will also increase from 5.31 million to 6.53 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- However, we expect that Vodafone will see its subscriber base decrease from 4.54 million in 2008 to 4.37 million in 2013.
Vodafone to lose its market share to KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) over the next five years
- Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will continue to lead the Netherlands in market shares; its share of subscribers will increase from 49.8% in 2008 to 52.8% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that Ben (T-Mobile) will see its market share increase slightly from 27% in 2008 to 28.3% in 2013.
- The market share gains at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) will be at the expense of Vodafone; we forecast that Vodafone's market share will fall from 23.1% to 18.9% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Vodafone will continue to enjoy the highest ARPU level in the country despite market share loss
- Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level in the Netherlands will decline from €27.68 in 2008 to €25.63 in 2013.
- Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU level in the country, and it will reach €39.08 in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that ARPU levels at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) in 2013 will be €21.33 and €23.45 respectively.
Profitability at Ben (T-Mobile) will improve over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline slightly from 32.1% in 2008 to 31.7% in 2013.
- Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will see its EBITD margin decrease from 39.9% in 2009 to 37.7% in 2013.
- EBITDA margins at Vodafone will fall slightly to 30.7% in 2013 from 31.6% in 2008.
- On the other hand, Ben's (T-Mobile) will see its EBIDTA margin increase to 24.3% in 4Q.2008 from 19.5% in 4Q.2007.
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Portugal - Mobile Market - Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Portugal’s mobile market is served by three providers – TMN, Vodafone and Optimus. Mobile penetration is above the EU average, while growth has been supported through the popularity of using multiple SIMs. All operators have launched 3G services and have invested in HSDPA upgrades. The MVNO market is undeveloped, with only two MVNOs active by mid-2008, though network operators have their own low-cost brands. This report profiles Portugal’s mobile market in 2009, providing statistics on network operators, a review of the key regulatory issues, a snapshot of the consumer market, and an analysis of mobile data services such as SMS, Push-to-Talk and mobile TV.
news from budde |
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Portugal - Mobile Market - Overview, Statistics & Forecasts
Portugal’s mobile market is served by three providers - TMN, Vodafone and Optimus. Mobile penetration is above the EU average, while growth has been supported through the popularity of using multiple SIMs. All operators have launched 3G services and have invested in HSDPA upgrades. The MVNO market is undeveloped, with only two MVNOs active by mid-2008, though network operators have their own low-cost brands. This report profiles Portugal’s mobile market in 2009, providing statistics on network operators, a review of the key regulatory issues, a snapshot of the consumer market, and an analysis of mobile data services such as SMS, Push-to-Talk and mobile TV.
news from researchandmarkets
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Portugal has 14.923 million subscribers to mobile telephone service
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2009 there were 14.923 million Mobile Telephone Service subscribers in Portugal, 0.1% more than in the previous quarter and 9.1% more than in the same quarter of the previous year.
Post-paid cards now represents 27% of the total number of subscribers. This trend is associated with the sign up of subscribers to UMTS based data services which, typically, involve the payment of a monthly charge.
The proportion represented by prepaid card subscribers stands at 73% of the total number of subscribers, falling 0.9% over the quarter.
At the end of March, the penetration rate of the land mobile service rose to 140.6 per 100 inhabitants.
Graph: Service penetration rate in EU27
The penetration rate recorded in Portugal (140.4 per 100 inhabitants) remains above the EU average (121.3 per 100 inhabitants).
Interpretation of the figures given for MTS subscribers and penetration rate should take account of the fact that there are users who have more than one card for accessing the service – according to ICP-ANACOM’s most recent survey on the consumption of electronic communications, around 10% of MTS customers had more than one active card. Additionally, there are SIM cards used exclusively for Internet access and data services; there are active cards used in machines, equipment and vehicles (e.g. automatic payment terminals using the mobile network, alarm, security, telemetric and telematic equipment, etc); as well as cards for corporate use.
In the first quarter of 2009, the number of users with access to UMTS services exceeded 4.8 million. The number of active users reached 1.6 million, up 23.3% on the previous quarter and up 70.5% year-on-year.
The potential users of UMTS/HSPA services represent 32.4% of the total number of MTS subscribers, while active users make up 10.6% of all mobile subscribers.
UMTS penetration at the end of March was 45.5 per 100 inhabitants, and according to available information regarding December 2008, the penetration rate reported at that time for Portugal (40.7 per 100 inhabitants) was above the EU average (21.4 per 100 inhabitants), with Portugal occupying third place in these rankings.
The UMTS penetration rate at the end of 1Q09 stood at 45.5 per 100 inhabitants and according to available information, with reference to 4Q08, the penetration rate then recorded in Portugal was above the EU average, with Portugal taking third place in this ranking.
Between January and March, subscribers of the mobile service made over 1.94 million calls, 0.5% less than in the previous quarter – the first quarter of the year normally coincides with a drop in traffic compared to the previous quarter. Year-on-year, the number of call increased 10.4%.
Over the same period, the number of calls received on the mobile network was around 1.95 billion, a decrease of 0.1% over the previous quarter and increase of 10.1% year-on-year. Mobile-fixed traffic declined 12.8% over the previous quarter, accelerating the downward trend seen over recent years.
The number of conversation minutes originating on mobile networks totalled 4.1 billion minutes, an increase of 1.5% over the previous quarter and an increase of 18.1% over the same quarter of 2008.
The number of minutes terminated on mobile networks totalled over 4.1 billion minutes, a 2.5% increase over the previous quarter.
6 billion text messages were sent during the quarter, around 2.5% more than in the previous quarter.
The average number of messages sent per subscriber reached 135 per month, during the period.
Meanwhile, 1.3 million video-calls were made during the quarter, an increase of 1.1% over the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 50.3%.. The conversation time associated with these calls also rose (by around 4.9% over the previous quarter).
During the quarter being reported, roaming in traffic fell, compared to the previous quarter, by 21.4% in the case of calls, 18.4% in the case of minutes and 24.9% in the case of messages, impacted by seasonal effects.
Roaming out traffic also fell over the quarter in terms of calls, minutes and messages: -2.5%, -3.8% and -5.3%, respectively. These declines go beyond the normal seasonal effects mentioned above.
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